THE POND PROTOCOLCHOOSE WELL.
THEN FIND OUT WHAT WENT WRONG.
Kepner–Tregoe is a family of structured thinking processes. This case demonstrates two core Kepner–Tregoe processes: Decision Analysis to choose a pond, then Problem Analysis to explain an unexpected change after the move.
?
Capybara needs a new pond. 🌿💧
Three places look promising. Choosing the prettiest one would be fast — but not necessarily smart. So Capybara separates requirements from preferences, then tests the leading option for downside risk.
Set the MUSTs.
A MUST is binary. If an alternative fails one, it is out — no amount of bonus points should rescue it.
| MUST requirement | A / Riverbend | B / Quiet Marsh | C / Melon Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe water quality | PASS ✓ | PASS ✓ | PASS ✓ |
| Available year-round | PASS ✓ | PASS ✓ | PASS ✓ |
| No high-speed boat traffic | PASS ✓ | PASS ✓ | PASS ✓ |
Weight the WANTs.
Not everything matters equally. Give the most important preference the largest weight, then score each pond against the same criteria.
| WANT | WEIGHT | A score | A × W | B score | B × W | C score | C × W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet / low disturbance | 10 | 4 | 40 | 9 | 90 | 7 | 70 |
| Shade | 8 | 9 | 72 | 8 | 64 | 4 | 32 |
| Snack access 🍉 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 5 | 35 | 10 | 70 |
| Space for friends | 5 | 7 | 35 | 9 | 45 | 7 | 35 |
| Easy maintenance | 4 | 6 | 24 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 24 |
Stress-test the leader.
The highest score is not an automatic winner. Ask what could go wrong, how serious it would be, and how likely it is.
A / RIVERBEND
B / QUIET MARSH
C / MELON BAY
Choose Quiet Marsh.
It passes every MUST, has the strongest weighted score, and its remaining risks are manageable. The point is not mathematical theater — it is making assumptions, priorities and trade-offs visible.
A week later, Quiet Marsh turns cloudy. 🌫️💧
Now the task is no longer to choose. It is to explain a deviation: what is happening, where, when, and how much — then compare that with where the problem is not.
WHAT_
IS: Water turns cloudy after noon.
IS NOT: Water is clear in the morning.
WHERE_
IS: North inlet side.
IS NOT: South reed bed.
WHEN_
IS: Since the new feeder was installed.
IS NOT: Before installation.
EXTENT_
IS: 1–2 hours each afternoon.
IS NOT: All day or across the whole pond.
CHANGES / DISTINCTIONS_
- New automatic feeder installed near north inlet.
- Only the north side receives concentrated snack pellets.
- Afternoon feeding coincides with cloudiness.
POSSIBLE CAUSES_
- Heavy rain runoff
- Filter failure
- Bird activity
- Feeder creating excess organic load
04 // TEST THE SUSPECTS_
A possible cause must explain the whole pattern — including why the problem appears here and now, but not elsewhere or earlier.
A // 🌧️ RAIN RUNOFF
B // ⚙️ FILTER FAILURE
C // 🐦 BIRD ACTIVITY
D // 🍽️ FEEDER OVERLOAD
REAL WORLD TRANSLATION_
REMEMBER_
Do not use the scores to manufacture certainty. The value is in forcing the team to state criteria, weights and risks explicitly. If the inputs are weak or political, a precise-looking total is still weak.
This case now demonstrates both Decision Analysis and Problem Analysis. Kepner–Tregoe also includes Situation Appraisal and Potential Problem Analysis.
TRY IT YOURSELF_
Use Decision Analysis when you need to choose between alternatives. Use Problem Analysis when something has deviated from normal and you need to explain why.
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EVIDENCE LEDGER_
Separate what you know from what you think. Facts, assumptions, tests and results stay visible while the investigation evolves.